The presidential debates do not really matter. The only take away from the debates are the snappy one-liners that go into political ads and give political cartoonists new concepts for their work. The issues remain the same and the debates only allow the candidates to further explain what they plan to do if elected. They don’t necessarily change people opinions about the issues, but they may however reveal something about the candidates personality.
According to the CNN article “Do U.S. presidential debates matter?” Contributor, Nick Thompson wrote, “While the debates offer Romney and Obama a chance to expand on their views and rebut each other's plans directly, experts say that the vast majority of Americans have already decided who they're voting for along party lines.”
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A Popular Science article was written asking Danny Oppenheimer, associate professor of psychology and public policy at Princeton University, and Mike Edwards, founder and contributor to Leftfielder.org. The article “PopSci Q&A: How Much Do Presidential Debates Matter?”
PopSci asked:
What really matters to voters in a debate? Is it the issues or the minutiae--the way their hair looks, what they're wearing.
The answer given by Edwards and Oppenheimer:
“When it comes to who a person will vote for, there are a number of factors affecting the popular perception of the candidates' likability, competency, and empathy, which voters derive initially from a first impression (which, like any first impression, is largely based on appearance), and then get modified over time throughout the campaigns. By the time of the debates, however, most voters will have already had their first impression of the candidate; they know what the candidates look like and sound like, what party they represent, etc.”
PopSci asked:
Is it more important for a candidate to be well-versed on issues, or to be a person who presents what they say in the right way (the right soundbites, the right "zingers")?
The answer given by Edwards and Oppenheimer:
“Being actually knowledgeable about the issues doesn't matter at all, unfortunately. What matters is that they sound like they are knowledgeable about the issues: don't say "um," don't equivocate, don't veer too far from conventional wisdom, don't give complex answers. As for zingers--they can be very effective, if they underscore an opponent's perceived weakness, although one must be careful with them too--zingers frequently backfire and make the person who said them look mean or petty, especially when they are aimed at someone who the audience is predisposed to like.”
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The real indicator of that will answer the question: “Do the debates really matter?” are the polls. According to political scientist, Thomas Holbrook, “the average change over the last 16 presidential debates is less than 1 percentage point.
Although there’s proof that the debates don’t have much effect on the way people vote, Here are the moments that we all remember from the debates.
President Obama started the debate by saying,“Twenty years ago, I became the luckiest man on earth because Michelle Obama agreed to marry me.”
Romney returned with, “Congratulations, I’m sure this is the most romantic place you
could imagine—here with me!”
Romney’s jab at Sesame Street gave political cartoonists some great material for a few weeks and even inspired a lot of halloween costumes. “The GOP candidate told moderator and PBS host Jim Lehrer that he wants to slash the federal government's subsidy to the public broadcasting system—but assured: ‘I love Big Bird! I actually like you, too!”’
And it would be impossible to forget Romney’s best debate line, “I had the chance to pull together a Cabinet, and all the applicants seemed to be men. I went to a number of women's groups and said, 'Can you help us find folks?' and they brought us whole binders full of women."
I think the debates matter to a certain extent. Factcheckers have a field day each night a debate takes place because candidates have the tendency to make white lies. Politicians work to improve their images to gain more votes, but if those lies come back to them after a debate, it might not be that easy.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, debates force politicians to be accountable for what they say because an entire nation is watching. The one-liners are great, but as we discussed in class, only really matter for a week or two until we hear another witty quip on the news.
I think the answer to the question of whether or not the debates matter really depends on which political scientists you ask. If you look at the New York Times blog, Five Thirty Eight, they show their election forecast in graphs running from June to November. Both the electoral vote and the popular vote graphs show obvious changes after the debates. Specifically, they show Obama's votes dropping and Romney's votes increasing dramatically on October 4, after the first debate. Then, on October 16, after the second debate, you see another change making Obama's forecast increase and Romney's decrease. It's really interesting to see how much their numbers change directly correlating to the debates on one blog while another expert would say that the debates really don't matter. As said in The Simpsons, "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true."
ReplyDeletehttp://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/