As quoted by Jon Stewart, “Nate Silver, Lord and god of the
algorithm.” His predictions, aside from the North Dakota Senate race were all
proved correct. The big question at this point is what does this mean for 4
years from now. Well for one current polling practices really need to change
and adapt to practices closer to those of Silver’s. The data can’t come
straight from past elections or even from the one just 4 years before, because
as it has been shown, the demographics of the nation are changing and it is
having a direct impact on the outcome of elections. This is what I, as well as
many others, believe was the main problem which caused the major disconnects in
the polling data. Also it will be interesting to see how large of an effect
Nate Silver’s polling data in particular will affect the political techniques
of both parties in the next election.
It is amazing, overall to see what math can really do and it will be even more interesting to see how much more accurate the polls can get in the future.
I agree with this Bob. The country is changing. Demographics are moving and the "experts" are still stuck in the past. The entire election process still seems so out-dated in some senses. We still mention election results from 20 years ago which, in my mind, seem extremely irrelevant. Look at the state of Michigan. We have had a steadily decreasing population as a whole, not to mention specific demographics that are leaving the state.
ReplyDeleteIt's time to step into 2012 and take these statistical "guesses" into count. They are legitimate.
One of my teachers was saying how he was following Nate Silver's predictions while watching the election and how television stations are just dramatizing the whole process for more ratings. I agree with you Bob that it is amazing what math can do and how far along we have come. I just can't wait to see how elections in the future will be handled or improved.
ReplyDeleteI also think it will be incredibly interesting to see how Nate Silver's predictions will affect candidate's campaign strategies. I'm thinking they're going to try to have a person (or people) who will do exactly what Silver has been doing in order to figure out the predictions and change them, if need be, before the election.
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